"The data..." Macallan placed his glasses on the table, "all from our station's regular monitoring channels?"
"All of it," Lu Shen replied crisply. "The offshore yen forward contract positions come from the public filings of the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange Society. The hedging transaction flows of Japanese enterprises are from our routine capital monitoring of the four major Japanese banks' Hong Kong branches. The cross-border investment filings of insurance funds are from the filing disclosure system of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.
Every piece of data is within my compliance retrieval scope as an economic analyst. The report's appendix contains a complete index of data sources and retrieval record numbers, which can be verified one by one."
Macallan stared at him for three seconds.
"Why can you see these, but the headquarters' Economic Intelligence Division cannot?"
This question was crucial.
Lu Shen knew it would come.
He also knew that the credibility of the entire report... and even the security of his personal identity... depended on his answer to this question.
"Because they're not in Hong Kong," Lu Shen's tone was calm and sincere. "Station Chief, the analysis model of the headquarters' Economic Intelligence Division is macro. They look at the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the official statements of the Bank of Japan, the joint communiqués of the G5 Finance Ministers' Meeting.
These are all correct information sources, but they share a common problem... they are all 'official narratives.' Official narratives tell you what policymakers want the market to believe, but they won't tell you what the market is actually doing."
He paused slightly. "While I sit here every day, I see the real transaction flows of the Hong Kong offshore market... the flow of real money, the structural changes in hedging positions, the filing trends of insurance funds. These are the votes cast by market participants with their money, not words. When there is a huge divergence between the two, I trust the money!"
Macallan was taken aback for a moment, then he nodded slightly.
"This report," Macallan picked up the stack of papers again, his thumb rubbing the edge of the pages, "if your predictions are correct... and I say if... its value is far more than just an economic analysis."
"I know," Lu Shen said.
"The biggest headache for the White House right now is the U.S.-Japan trade deficit issue. Genzi's advisory team and the hawkish congressmen on Capitol Hill are arguing about it every day. If someone can accurately predict the flow of Japanese funds and the policy shifts of the Japanese government three to six months in advance, and provide actionable response plans..." Macallan paused, "that is not intelligence analysis, that is strategic-level decision support."
"That's exactly why I came to you, Station Chief."
When Lu Shen said this, his tone was full of respect...
"The entire data foundation of this report comes from the Economic Analysis Group's year-round routine monitoring of Hong Kong-Japan funds. Without the continuous investment of monitoring resources by the station over the past year and your strategic layout for East Asian economic intelligence, this report would not exist."
He looked into Macallan's eyes and said word by word:
"So, if this report has value, it is first and foremost the value of the Hong Kong Station, the value of your strategic vision as Station Chief. I merely did the job of an analyst within the framework you built."
Macallan did not immediately respond.
He picked up his coffee cup and took a sip... the coffee was already cold, he frowned, but swallowed it anyway.
Macallan put down the cup, leaned back in his chair, crossed his hands over his abdomen, and looked at Lu Shen with a scrutinizing gaze.
He was calculating, Lu Shen knew what he was calculating.
A seasoned Station Chief who had been immersed in the CIA system for twenty years, his mindset had long been trained by the system into a precise interest calculator.
Any piece of intelligence, any action, any subordinate's proposal, in his eyes, would automatically be broken down into a three-dimensional assessment...
What is the risk? What is the reward? Is the risk-reward ratio worth betting on?
The risk of Lu Shen's report was clear: it completely contradicted the official conclusions of the headquarters' Economic Intelligence Division. If Macallan endorsed it and reported it, and the prediction was ultimately proven wrong, he would bear the political consequences of "challenging the authority of the headquarters in the name of the station."
At best, his year-end evaluation would suffer; at worst, it could affect his career.
But the reward?
If the prediction was correct...
Macallan's fingers tapped lightly on his abdomen.
If the prediction was correct, this report would become the most forward-looking economic intelligence product within the CIA system in 1985.
It would directly prove the irreplaceable value of the Hong Kong Station in the field of East Asian economic intelligence monitoring, proving Macallan's precise judgment and resource allocation capabilities in intelligence direction.
More importantly... the fourth prediction of the report clearly pointed out that Hong Kong was about to become the core hub for Japanese funds entering the entire East Asia.
This meant that in the next three to five years, the strategic position of the Hong Kong Station would significantly rise, and the headquarters would have to allocate more budget, personnel, and operational authority to the Hong Kong Station.
And the starting point of all this was Macallan's name signed on this report.
More crucially, the Yu Ruoyin incident had left an implicit mark on the Hong Kong Station's annual rating.
Although the station handled it properly, avoiding any substantial security crisis, the fact that Yu Ruoyin was intercepted and killed was a blemish on his long resume.
And if this report was adopted by the headquarters...
That mark would not only be erased but would be completely covered by a shining medal.
Macallan's gaze returned to the report, he flipped to the beginning...
"This report is based on the year-round routine monitoring data of Hong Kong-Japan funds by the Economic Analysis Group of the Hong Kong Station, under the strategic guidance and resource support of Station Chief Macallan."
Then flipped to the end...
"In summary, the real transaction data and capital flows of the Hong Kong offshore market provide a micro-verification dimension that the headquarters' macro-analysis framework cannot cover. The formation of this unique information advantage is due to the continuous strategic investment in the East Asian economic intelligence monitoring system by the Hong Kong Station under the leadership of Station Chief Macallan."
Written very cleverly.
Lu Shen's wording was restrained and professional, wrapping the credit distribution in the shell of objective fact statements, allowing the reader... whether it was Macallan himself or any senior executive at the headquarters... to naturally come to the impression that this report was a product of the Hong Kong Station's system capabilities, rather than the personal heroism of an analyst.
Macallan closed the report.
"What do you want?"
In the CIA system, no one would hand over the credit for a heavyweight achievement to a superior without reason.
Behind every concession of credit, there is a demand for an equivalent exchange.
Macallan didn't mind the exchange... what he cared about was whether the other party's asking price was reasonable.
Lu Shen was equally direct.
"I don't need the credit, Station Chief. If the report is adopted by the headquarters, the core credit belongs to the Hong Kong Station and to you personally. I only need one thing... professional recognition."
"Be specific."
"If this report is taken seriously by the headquarters, it will inevitably involve in-depth engagement with the headquarters' East Asian economic decision-making team. This engagement work requires someone familiar with the Hong Kong offshore market data system, capable of professional dialogue with headquarters analysts at the same level."
Lu Shen's tone was so steady that it didn't sound like a negotiation, more like stating an obvious logical deduction, "The most reasonable candidate is the author of this report. And the nature of this engagement work requires me to be seconded to Langley Headquarters, for at least three to six months."
Macallan looked at him, his gaze sharp.
Then he smiled.
That kind of smile unique to an old hunter when a young hunter shows hunting skills beyond expectations... the corners of his mouth slightly upturned, a shrewd light flashing in his eyes.
"You've been planning this step from the beginning."
It wasn't a question, it was a statement.
Lu Shen neither denied nor admitted it.
He just stood there, neither humble nor arrogant, waiting for Macallan's final decision.
...
Macallan stood up from his chair.
He walked to the window, pushed open the blinds, and glanced at the street scene outside on Hong Kong Island.
The sun was shining brightly, the office buildings in Central were reflecting dazzling light, and the sea surface of Victoria Harbour was bustling with cargo ships.
He stood with his back to Lu Shen, silent for a long time.
Finally, he turned around.
"I'll give you the highest level endorsement."
The tension that had been strung in Lu Shen's heart all morning silently eased a bit.
But there was no change in his expression... in this system, premature joy and excessive gratitude were both dangerous signals.
"Encrypted direct line, two destinations..." Macallan returned to his desk, opened a drawer, and took out a highest-level transmission slip with the Station Chief's seal, "To the office of Director Weber of the Asia Operations Directorate, and to the office of Division Chief Lane of the Economic Intelligence Division. Both must be sent, not one less."
He unscrewed the pen, wrote his name in the signature column of the transmission slip, the handwriting strong and decisive.
"Go." Macallan sat back in his chair, picked up the cup of cold coffee again, seemingly remembering something, "Lu Shen."
Lu Shen had already reached the door, stopped and turned back at the words.
"This report..." Macallan's tone carried a bit more weight than before, the kind of caution that only emerges when a superior reevaluates a subordinate, "If the yen's trend in December proves you right..."
Before he could finish, the office door was knocked.
Three short knocks, urgent in rhythm, unlike routine business.
Macallan frowned. "Come in."
The door opened.
It was Harrison, the duty officer of the Communications Unit at the Hong Kong Station, a young man in his late twenties with red hair and a face full of freckles, now flushed red, clutching a piece of paper freshly torn from the encrypted teleprinter, the edges still frayed from the machine's cut.
"Station Chief—" Harrison's voice was half a tone higher than usual, "An urgent market bulletin just forwarded by Tokyo Station through the encrypted channel, marked as A-2 Classification."
A-2 Classification.
In the CIA's intelligence classification system, A-2 means "source highly reliable, content preliminarily verified."
Used in a market bulletin, this level is quite rare.
Macallan reached out and took the paper.
Lu Shen stood at the door, unmoving, he should have turned to leave at this point... the urgent bulletin from the Communications Unit was already a separate matter from his report, staying in the Station Chief's office any longer would be neither compliant nor courteous.
But he didn't leave.
Because he noticed a word on the paper in Harrison's hand.
Yen.
Macallan unfolded the paper and scanned it quickly, the office fell silent for a moment.
"Harrison, what is the original source of this bulletin?"
"Tokyo Station's Financial Monitoring Team, their informant is directly from the peripheral circle of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee." Harrison clearly realized the weight of this bulletin, "Tokyo Station noted... the intelligence has been cross-verified by a second independent source." This chapter was taken from g.com without permission.
Macallan finally looked up, not at Harrison, but at Lu Shen.
"Harrison, out. Close the door."
Harrison hesitated for a moment, then turned and left, the door closing softly behind him.
Only two people remained in the office.
Macallan placed the paper on the table, his fingers slowly pushing it towards Lu Shen.
Lu Shen glanced down.
The content on the paper wasn't long... the format constraints of encrypted teleprints meant it could only carry the most core information... but every word seemed hammered into the paper:
"Tokyo Station urgent bulletin: According to reliable sources, the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee will hold an emergency closed-door meeting in the second week of December, with the agenda being 'addressing the impact of the yen's continued appreciation on the export sector.' The committee has reached a preliminary consensus, leaning towards initiating the first official discount rate cut within the year, estimated at 50 basis points. This policy shift has not yet been communicated to the Ministry of Finance, and is in the pre-decision phase within the central bank."
Rate cut.
December rate cut.
Not intervening in the exchange rate, not entering the market to sell yen, not the "central bank will act to curb appreciation" that the headquarters' Economic Intelligence Division and the entire market mainstream view were convinced of—
Quite the opposite.
The Bank of Japan chose to cut rates.
Cutting rates means releasing liquidity, further lowering yen interest rates, decreasing the attractiveness of yen assets, and accelerating the flow of capital from yen to dollar assets...
It means that yen appreciation will not only not stop, but will accelerate under the central bank's own push.
This matched every word of the second core prediction in Lu Shen's report.
Word for word.
Even the timing of "the first rate cut within the year" was precisely the same month.
Macallan leaned back in his chair, staring at Lu Shen for a long time,
"Your report..." Macallan finally spoke, as if each syllable had been carefully weighed, "it says 'the Bank of Japan will initiate the first rate cut as early as December this year.'"
"Yes."
"You wrote this report in the early hours of today."
"Yes."
"And the timestamp on Tokyo Station's bulletin..." Macallan glanced at the notation in the lower right corner of the paper, "is 8:17 AM Tokyo time today, meaning the earliest the informant could have obtained this information was late last night."
He looked up.
"You reached the same conclusion a few hours earlier than insiders of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee. And your basis was merely the public trading data of the Hong Kong offshore market."
"Station Chief." Lu Shen's tone was as steady as stating a law of physics, "The market always leads policy. Not because the market is smarter than policymakers, but because the market is the sum of all participants' actions—every trade, every position change, every hedging contract, is a real decision made by an economic entity based on its own interests.
When thousands of such real decisions converge, the direction they point to is often the direction policymakers ultimately have to move towards."
He paused slightly.
"The committee members of the Bank of Japan spent two months discussing and negotiating in meeting rooms, finally arriving at the conclusion of 'rate cut.' Meanwhile, the financial departments of Japanese enterprises in the Hong Kong offshore market had already begun voting for this conclusion with their hedging actions six weeks ago. I merely read those votes."
Macallan picked up the pen on the table and added a handwritten note to the highest-level transmission slip he had already signed.
After writing, Macallan capped the pen, folded the transmission slip and report, and handed them to Lu Shen.
"The transmission level is upgraded from regular encryption to highest priority encryption. I added a note... 'The core prediction of this report has been cross-verified by an independent source from Tokyo Station, recommend priority review by headquarters.' This line will ensure Weber and Lane open the report the day they receive it, instead of letting it sit in their secretary's pending file pile for two weeks."
Lu Shen took the documents.
The weight of the paper hadn't changed, but the weight in his hands had completely transformed.
"Additionally..." Macallan picked up the coffee cup, found it completely cold, and put it down, "the request you just mentioned, to be seconded to Langley Headquarters to engage with the East Asian economic decision-making team."
"Yes."
"No need to wait until December."
Macallan's gaze fell on the distant sea surface of Victoria Harbour through the slats of the blinds.
"If Weber and Lane's feedback is positive... with the current quality of this report plus Tokyo Station's cross-verification, I believe the probability of positive feedback exceeds ninety percent—I will formally submit your transfer request to headquarters. Not a rotation, but a special task transfer order. The reason is exactly what you said: the in-depth intelligence engagement of future U.S.-Japan economic games requires the author to personally execute at headquarters."
He turned his head, looking at Lu Shen.
"This is the fastest path I can offer you. Fast enough?"
"More than enough," he said. "Thank you, Station Chief."
"Go."
Lu Shen pushed open the office door and walked out.
The fluorescent lights in the corridor buzzed overhead, his footsteps echoing crisply and evenly on the terrazzo floor.
He tucked the transmission slip and report under his arm, walked to the end of the corridor, pushed open the door to the Communications Unit, and handed the documents to the duty officer.
"Highest priority encrypted transmission, two destinations, signed by the Station Chief."
The duty officer took the documents, verified the seal and stamp, and nodded, "Received, expected to complete encryption coding within forty minutes, sent out within an hour."