B.B.D.
Bagh (Dalhousie) central business district of Kolkata
I left the Hotel behind and headed toward the bank’s lining opposite of the hotel.
It would probably take Alfred some time to track me down, so I figured I should handle other business in the meantime.
First, I needed to establish a letter of credit so our Dhanakuber Omer could feel secure.
“Where the hell did he establish ExIm Bank?”
After wandering around searching for some time and asking here and there I came to know that to save resources it’s in the save Building as RBI’s regional HQ
That caught me off guard.
So to establish the L/C account I have to go to the RBI.
Well L/C account is very important.
When you do business you will understand that.
[A Letter of Credit (L/C) was essentially a certificate through which a bank guaranteed transaction safety between exporter and importer in international trade.
People sometimes compared it to a real estate intermediary contract.
But honestly, a modern online escrow service was a much better analogy.
For example, imagine trading an expensive luxury handbag.
Both buyer and seller would want protection against fraud.
So they’d use a middleman escrow platform.
The platform would hold the payment in advance, and only after the buyer confirmed receipt and authenticity of the product would the money be released to the seller.
There were fees involved, but for avoiding scams, few systems were safer.
International trade was especially vulnerable because of the physical distance involved.
That’s why banks held the payment, verified all customs and shipping documents, and only then released the funds.
The term “letter of credit” literally came from the idea that the bank verified the transaction details so both parties could trust each other.]
‘Ridiculous.
Having to visit the RBI just to open an L/C.’ well it’s not distant from here.
After passing through the intimidating main entrance, I finally spotted a sign reading “ExIm Bank of India” tucked away in a corner.
Placing foreign exchange operations in a corner is possible… is this Bastard really serious about promoting exports?
Despite this government’s urgency, it seemed the financial sector of the 1950s hadn’t even properly established export procedures yet.eevn If under him it’s this way, i don’t know what happen in that timeline.
“Hello.”
“Welcome. How may we help you?”
“I’m from Nayara Corporation. I’d like to establish a letter-of-credit notification account for exports to Egypt .”
“Please fill out the L/C application form. We’ll also need the commercial credit agreement, export sales contract, corporate registration documents, and company common seal. The application forms are over there.”
The female clerk spoke in a stiff, mechanical tone.
Not a trace of friendliness.
Apparently the stories older generations told about having to give honey bank employees with honey just to get work done weren’t exaggerations.
“Here you are.”
I filled out the paperwork and handed it over.
Thankfully, Abir had already completed the corporate registration, allowing me to submit the documents properly.
“Please wait.”
Then she began typing furiously in the typewriter.
Typing up paperwork that had already been handwritten.
A perfect symbol of 1950s inefficiency.
Time crawled by painfully.
“Sir, it’s complete.”
“Ah, thank you.”
At last, the letter of credit had been established.
It had taken over two hours.
‘So now, somehow, I had to secure a Word Bank loan… then use that loan to obtain domestic financing from the Industrial Development Bank of India… manufacture the products… receive export approval… ship them… obtain shipping confirmation documents and submit them to the bank… and only then do the dollars finally land in my hands.
Complicated.’
The first step was always the hardest.
If this were the 21st century, I’d have gone searching for investors.
But in the 1950s, opportunities were abundant while actual money was scarce.
In that sense, the 1950s really were a soaring era.
There were more opportunities for huge success than there was capital.
“Should I head back now? Alfred will probably come find me at the factory eventually.”
If he came looking for me, I could simply show him this letter of credit.
That alone might help me secure several hundred thousand dollars in loans.
With that hopeful thought, I left the bank.
While waiting for the bus at the stop, a black government sedan pulled up in front of me.
“I found you! Mr. Rohit ! It’s me, Alfred.”
“Alfred? How did you—”
“Get in. Quickly.”
“Get in?”
“There’s somewhere we need to go. You won’t regret it.”
Regret?
“Very well.”
I climbed into the car and immediately shook his hand.
“I’m relieved I found you. I assumed you’d come to the Banks. Looks like I was right.”
So the economist had even predicted I’d head toward the banks.
Smart man.
“Where are we going?”
“To the U.S. Consulate.”
“Why there— Ah! So you really want to discuss that”
“…You, you, Yes that is right, i want to discuss that more broadly, so i need to use a secure telex to contact my team.”
American engineers and economists had already started using Telex by this era for secure communication.
where computers are still in infancy like Manchester Baby is a breakthrough now, only this way can they exchange information and do their works more efficiently.
At this time’s computers by 21st-century standards is barely more advanced than calculators, but compared to humans they could process calculations hundreds of times faster.
“So part exactly do you need from me?”
“To answer questions about the future of the Arab-Israel War and the effect of that war in America.”
As expected.
He’d seen the phrase written on the back of my business card.
The moment Alfred read it, he’d probably thought: This is it.
Economists like Alfred gained attention by warning governments about looming risks — and if those warnings later proved correct, they gained enormous prestige.
‘Hmm… What was the effect on the US again?
Global trade is jeopardised or oil companies are facing losses, maybe?’
The guess wasn’t difficult.
Painful memories from my previous life running a construction company were enough.
Inflation always repeated itself in cycles roughly every decade.
The numbers varied slightly, but every major economic crisis tended to involve inflation around five-six percent and it’s only in the last decade and half that they overcame the great depression.
The IMF crisis in the 1990s had been especially brutal, with inflation soaring above eight percent.
That’s how that decade’s government is in shambles, there is also war with that bastard country.
U.S.
Consulate, Calcutta
While trying to recall those memories, we eventually arrived at the US consulate.
“Halt! Stop there.”
“I’m Alfred, a World Bank officer. I’m here to use the telex for communication.”
“Do you have authorization?”
“Here are the credentials.”
“And who’s the man beside you? He appears Indian.”
“My assistant. I guarantee his identity.”
“You may pass.”
“Thank you. Good work.”
We passed through the Consulate checkpoint with surprising ease.
Alfred and the sentries clearly recognized each other.
The car stopped in front of a remarkably modern building.
I have to praise the Architecture of this building.
“Incredible, is not it let’s go inside ”
“So. How long do you believe the Arad-Israel War will last?”
Alfred suddenly threw the question at me.
To me, it was obvious.
But for Alfred, this question had never even occurred to him just hours earlier.
Because at this point, not only the United States but most of the world assumed that once America intervened in the war it would end quickly.
After all, it was the world’s strongest military against small fishing villages.
And the result also approved of that but the main problem is that after this war there is a very complex situation that happens after the war ends.
So let’s start.
“Everyone is focused on who wins the war. I think that’s the wrong question.”
“Then what should we be looking at?”
“The consequences. Europe has barely emerged from the Second World War. Factories are rebuilding, trade routes are reopening, and reconstruction depends on stable access to raw materials and fuel, is it not?”
“Go on.”
“The Middle East sits between Europe and Asia. More importantly, the Suez Canal is one of the world’s most important trade routes. If future conflicts threaten that route, the economic consequences could extend far beyond the region.”
“You believe the canal could become a strategic flashpoint?”
“How could it not? Every major power understands its importance. Britain certainly does. Any prolonged instability around Egypt or Palestine will force governments and shipping companies and insurance companies to think differently.”
“But Israel has just been created. Surely stability will follow once the fighting ends.”
“Perhaps. Or perhaps this is only the first war.”
“You think there will be another?”
“The Arab states suffered a humiliating defeat. Defeats create anger. Anger creates political movements. Political movements create new conflicts.”
“What kind of movements?”
“Nationalist movements. Religious movements. Anti-colonial movements. The British and French empires are already weakening. New leaders will emerge promising dignity and revenge.”
“Take Egypt. Groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood already exist. If governments are perceived as weak or corrupt, organizations that combine religion, nationalism, and social services could gain influence.”
“Politics always affects economics. If governments become unstable, investors hesitate. If shipping routes are threatened, insurance costs rise. If oil supplies become uncertain, industrial nations pay more for energy.”
“You’re describing a chain reaction.”
“Exactly. Europe’s recovery depends on affordable energy and secure trade. America depends on a stable international trading system. A regional war can become a global economic problem surprisingly quickly.”
After all this War triggered countless domino effects worldwide, including the devaluation of pounds and many other things.
“Naturally. No matter how wealthy America is, prolonged war becomes dangerous. Britain won World War II and still surrendered global leadership to the United States afterward, didn’t it?”
Alfred could only nod.
Historical precedent always carried more weight than abstract economic theories.
“…Your logic is sound. Then how severely do you think American and western interests can be harmed here?”
Alfred now treated me like some great scholar.
An ordinary person could never answer such a question.
“If instability spreads across the Middle East and the Suez route becomes unreliable, Europe’s recovery will become far more expensive…”
Alfred began feeding numbers into the communication machine to send information to his teams.
He was attempting to estimate the impact of shipping disruptions on European reconstruction.
“Even with conservative assumptions, freight costs could rise dramatically. Industrial inputs, fuel, machinery—everything would become more expensive. Britain and Western Europe may recover, but much more slowly.”
I folded my arms.
The war itself was not the problem.
The consequences would be.
“Remarkable. How did you arrive at that conclusion so quickly?”
Alfred stared between me and the machine.
The computer was still processing data while I had already reached a conclusion.
“History leaves clues,” I replied.
“If you were advising Washington, Mr. Rohit Karmakar, what would you do?”
“There is only one sensible course.”
“And that is?”
“Build alternative industrial partners before a crisis occurs.”
Alfred raised an eyebrow.
“Alternative partners?”
“Yes. Europe is exhausted. Britain is indebted. The Middle East is becoming politically unstable. If future conflicts threaten trade routes, America will need reliable manufacturing partners elsewhere.”
“And where would those be?”
“India.”
“India?”
“Of course. We have cotton, jute, iron ore, coal, engineers, and one of the largest labor forces on Earth. With sufficient investment, India can become both a manufacturing center and a stabilizing force in Asian trade.”
Alfred remained silent.
I continued.
“Think strategically. Every textile mill built in India reduces dependence on uncertain supply chains. Every steel plant increases industrial capacity outside Europe. Every port expansion strengthens trade throughout the Indian Ocean.”
“You believe India could play such a role?”
“Not immediately. But the foundations can be laid now.”
Alfred slowly nodded.
“Interesting.”
“The real question is not who won the Arab–Israeli War,” I said.
“It is whether the region remains stable. If future Arab nationalism grows stronger, if Egypt becomes more assertive, if the canal becomes a political weapon, the entire Western economy could feel the consequences.”
Alfred’s expression changed.
“You believe that is possible?”
“Possible? Certainly. Predictable? Not yet. But prudent governments prepare for possibilities before they become realities.”
His team finally send its results.
Alfred glanced at the figures and then looked back at me.
For the first time since we met, he wasn’t looking at me as a businessman.
He was looking at me not as a mere scholar but as a strategist.
If he followed up where i led to him
‘For us, it can become the opportunity of a lifetime.’
Japan and South Korea would eventually earn billions of dollars in foreign capital thanks to the Korean war and the Vietnam War boom respectively.
After that Japanese and Korean construction firms began entering overseas markets in the mid – late 1960s precisely because massive civil engineering projects exploded as U.S.
military operations expanded throughout Southeast Asia.
And the Middle East war and oil boom.
The same thing happened in the early 2000s when Chinese products flooded the world and helped stabilize global inflation after OPEC strictly controlled the production quota and the Libya and Iraq war happened.
Cheap products annoyed consumers in some ways, but economically they served an important function.
Low-cost goods reduced prices directly while simultaneously forcing existing manufacturers into price competition, pushing inflation downward overall.
“Of course, there’s a prerequisite. If India is going to produce proper industrial goods, and America wants a close relationship with India, America needs to invest first. Funding for the Heavy and Chemical industry should be the highest priority.”
“You mean the World Bank loan.”
“Oh? Is that where this conversation naturally leads?”
I smiled faintly.
After such a long discussion, we’d finally arrived at the topic of loans.
Honestly, after consulting this much, wasn’t I entitled to borrow a little money too?