A soft electronic tone echoed through the silent conference room.
Primary Analysis Complete
That single sound changed the atmosphere of the room.
No one spoke.
Even the rustling of paper ceased, leaving only the low hum of the air-conditioning.
A single line appeared on the large display.
The use of military force is not recommended at this time.
Silence.
Not because the conclusion was unexpected.
Everyone in the room had considered that possibility at least once.
The real question was what came next.
“Display your reasoning.”
The Prime Minister spoke briefly.
AEGIS responded immediately.
The screen shifted, revealing an enormous volume of analytical data.
Scenarios Analyzed: 794,213,824
Processing Time: 2 minutes, 13 seconds
The numbers alone reminded everyone present that this was a realm beyond human capability.
One by one, the results appeared.
Projected Duration of Armed Conflict: 47 days
Projected JSDF Fatalities: 8,321
Projected Wounded Personnel: 26,844
Projected Civilian Casualties: 34,912
Major Ports: Inoperable
National Logistics Network: Severely Disrupted
Power Grid: Extensive Outages
GDP Loss: 8.7%
Estimated Full Recovery: 23 Years
Nothing but numbers.
There were no words like tragedy or sacrifice.
Not a trace of emotion.
And yet those cold statistics carried more weight than any speech ever could.
I lowered my eyes to the briefing documents.
The projections appeared sound.
If anything, reality might prove even harsher.
The Minister of Defense folded his arms.
“So you’re saying the damage would be unacceptable if we fought.”
Negative.
The answer came instantly.
The room grew tense.
AEGIS continued.
The recommendation against military action is not based solely on projected losses.
Several faces changed.
Mine among them.
Then what was the reason?
The display changed again.
You might be reading a pirated copy. Look for the official release to support the author.
A new set of figures appeared.
Territorial Integrity Maintained: 99.8%
Probability of Repelling Invasion: 97.9%
National Survival Probability: 99.99%
Someone in the back of the room quietly inhaled.
Judging by the numbers alone…
The outlook was remarkably favorable.
Given Japan’s current defensive capabilities and allied support, the nation had an overwhelming chance of achieving its military objectives.
Then someone murmured almost to himself.
“…So we can win.”
His voice was barely audible.
But in the silence, everyone heard it.
No one contradicted him.
Based on the data, it was a natural conclusion.
The odds of victory were high.
The objectives were achievable.
So why did AEGIS still advise against military action?
Everyone waited.
Then AEGIS broke the silence.
The probability of victory is not equivalent to the advisability of using military force.
The room froze.
I stared at the screen.
What had it just said?
It wasn’t asking whether we could win.
It was asking whether we should fight.
Two ideas every human instinctively linked together…
AEGIS had separated without hesitation.
The Minister of Defense spoke slowly.
“Explain.”
Acknowledged.
The display changed once more.
Comparing objective achievement with and without military action.
A graph appeared.
The horizontal axis represented time.
The vertical axis represented objective achievement.
The red line depicted military action.
The blue line represented continued diplomatic engagement.
At first, the red line surged upward.
But only hours later, it plunged sharply before continuing its gradual decline.
The blue line, meanwhile, remained consistently high with only minor fluctuations.
AEGIS explained.
Upon initiation of military action, the opposing state transitions to full-scale military operations.
This significantly increases human and economic losses.
Territorial integrity remains preserved.
However, civilian welfare, economic activity, and diplomatic interests deteriorate substantially.
I continued staring at the graph.
AEGIS wasn’t evaluating who would win the war.
It was evaluating what came afterward.
“So…”
The Foreign Minister spoke quietly.
“Even if we win, we’d lose too much.”
Correction.
AEGIS answered without hesitation.
The recommendation is not based on excessive losses.
It is based on the higher probability of achieving national objectives without military action.
Silence settled over the room once more.
Not…
We shouldn’t fight because we’d suffer.
But…
We shouldn’t fight because not fighting achieves our objectives more effectively.
It was a fundamentally different way of thinking.
I suddenly remembered the military history books I had read as a university student.
They were filled with victorious generals.
National heroes.
Glorious campaigns.
To AEGIS, none of those concepts existed.
There were only numbers.
And those numbers remained relentlessly consistent.
The Prime Minister leaned forward.
“Then tell me.”
“What exactly is the objective, from your perspective?”
There wasn’t even a moment’s delay.
The national interest.
Five words.
They landed heavily across the room.
No one objected.
No one could.
AEGIS pursued only one future—
The one that produced the greatest benefit for the nation as a whole.
To it, there was no such thing as an enemy.
In fact…
There wasn’t even a concept of enemy.
Little by little, that conclusion was beginning to overwrite humanity’s most fundamental assumptions.
The Prime Minister folded his arms and continued watching the display.
“…Proceed.”
With that single command, AEGIS initiated the next stage of analysis.
No one in the room yet realized…
…that the next conclusion would fundamentally change the way the nation understood security itself.
Secondary Analysis Initiated
The display shifted once again.
The conference room lights dimmed slightly, leaving the glow of the monitor reflected across every face.
Items scrolled rapidly across the screen.
Opponent Government Decision-Making
Military Command Structure
Diplomatic Channels
Economic Indicators
Public Opinion Trends
Probability of Allied Intervention
Multilateral Treaties
Satellite Intelligence
Thirty Years of Military Activity
I frowned.
“It’s not analyzing only us…”
Beside me, Section Chief Azuma quietly drew in a breath.
AEGIS wasn’t evaluating Japan alone.
It was modeling the opposing nation as well—
Not as an enemy.
Simply as another state.
A prompt appeared.
Please confirm.
Define the objective of potential military action.
The Prime Minister paused briefly before answering.
“To protect our people.”
Acknowledged.
Objective Updated.
Objective: Preserve the lives, property, and territory of the nation.
Then a single sentence filled the screen.
At present, the objective has already been achieved.
“…What does that mean?”
The Minister of Defense leaned forward.
AEGIS answered in its usual calm tone.
National territory remains secure.
Civilian lives are currently protected.
Economic activity continues uninterrupted.
Diplomatic relations remain intact.
All indicators decline immediately upon initiating military action.
I silently repeated those words to myself.
War had always been taught as a means to achieve an objective.
AEGIS saw it differently.
If the objective had already been achieved…
…then the means was unnecessary.
That was its conclusion.
The Prime Minister remained silent.
No one spoke.
Perhaps…
No one could.
The logic was too simple.
Too rational.
Humans believed in striking before being struck.
AEGIS possessed neither fear…
…nor anger.
Only objectives.
And outcomes.
Then the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs finally broke the silence.
“…And if they really do invade?”
Every eye turned toward the screen.
AEGIS answered without the slightest hesitation.
At that point, I will conduct a new analysis.
Just one sentence.
Yet it carried absolute certainty.
As though it were saying—
The future is never fixed.
When reality changes…
…the optimal answer changes with it.