Silence settled over the conference room.
No one could challenge AEGIS’s answer.
“If the opposing nation initiates an attack, a new analysis will be performed at that time.”
It was a perfectly rational response.
And that was exactly what made it so unsettling.
“I have a question.”
The Foreign Minister quietly raised his hand.
“Go ahead,” the Prime Minister said.
“How likely do you estimate it is that the opposing nation will resort to military action?”
A few seconds of silence followed.
AEGIS began processing its immense pool of data once more.
『Analyzing』
A world map appeared on the main display.
Japan.
The neighboring nation.
The surrounding countries.
Shipping lanes.
Satellite orbits.
Economic zones.
Natural resources.
Submarine communication cables.
Countless lines connected them all, weaving an intricate web across the globe.
『Analysis Complete』
『Current Probability of Military Action by the Opposing Nation: 32.4%』
Higher than I had expected.
The atmosphere in the room grew noticeably heavier.
“So there’s nearly a one-in-three chance…”
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs spoke in a low voice.
『Supplemental Analysis』
The display changed.
『If the opposing nation is NOT operating a National Strategic AI』
『Probability of Military Action: 32.4%』
“…If they’re not?”
The question escaped my lips before I realized it.
AEGIS replied in the same calm tone as always.
『Estimated Probability That the Opposing Nation IS Operating a National Strategic AI: 96.4%』
The room changed instantly.
Unauthorized tale usage: if you spot this story on Amazon, report the violation.
The Chief Cabinet Secretary leaned forward.
“Your basis?”
『Frequency of military exercise revisions over the past five years』
『Decision-making speed during diplomatic negotiations』
『Military logistics deployment』
『Responses to economic sanctions』
『Satellite imagery』
『Signals intelligence』
『National budget allocation』
『Estimate derived from the above factors』
“So…”
The Prime Minister murmured.
“They have something like ours.”
『A system of comparable capability is highly probable.』
I exchanged a glance with Director Higashi.
If that was true…
Then the world had changed dramatically over the last decade.
Without anyone realizing it.
Without anyone noticing.
The nature of war itself had changed.
AEGIS displayed its next finding.
『Estimated Conclusion of the Opposing Nation’s AI』
Only a single sentence appeared.
『Military action is not recommended.』
I drew a sharp breath.
No one in the conference room moved.
It couldn’t be.
The conclusion was identical to ours.
Word for word.
It was impossible to dismiss as coincidence.
『Supplemental Analysis』
AEGIS continued.
『AI systems performing rational decision-making under identical conditions are highly likely to converge upon the same optimal solution.』
A chill ran down my spine.
It wasn’t diplomacy that was preventing war.
Nor military deterrence.
Not even humanity itself.
Invisible to one another, AIs across the world were independently reaching the same conclusion for their respective nations.
That was why no one pulled the trigger.
At that moment, I finally understood.
AEGIS was not merely a shield protecting Japan.
It was one part of an invisible equilibrium spanning the entire world.
“I’d like to confirm something.”
The Prime Minister broke the silence.
“In your assessment, there’s a high probability that their AI has reached the same conclusion as ours?”
『Affirmative.』
“Then why conduct military exercises on this scale?”
It was the question everyone in the room wanted answered.
Seventy-four naval vessels.
One hundred thirty-six aircraft.
Could a nation mobilize that much force without intending to fight?
AEGIS fell silent for several seconds.
Another analysis began.
『Estimating』
Two circles appeared on the display.
One represented Japan.
The other, the neighboring nation.
Between them stretched a single thin line.
『Neither side has conclusively confirmed the existence of the other’s strategic AI.』
『However, both estimate its existence with high probability.』
“In other words…”
The Foreign Minister spoke almost to himself.
『Both sides are evaluating each other’s decision-making capability.』
AEGIS continued.
『These military exercises are not preparations for war.』
『They are demonstrations of deterrence capability.』
The atmosphere shifted once again.
They weren’t preparing to fight.
They were confirming that neither side would.
No one had ever looked at military exercises that way.
“Then why not cancel them?”
the Minister of Defense asked.
『Not recommended.』
“Why?”
『Deterrence is not established by capability alone.』
『It exists only when that capability is recognized by the opposing side.』
I closed my eyes for a moment.
Of course.
A sword isn’t carried because you intend to draw it.
It’s because your opponent knows you can draw it that you never have to.
The same logic applied here.
AEGIS continued.
『If the exercises are canceled…』
『The opposing nation’s AI may interpret this as a reduction in Japan’s deterrence capability.』
『As a result, the probability of war increases to 9.8%.』
『Maintaining the current posture is the optimal solution.』
Nothing but numbers.
Not a trace of emotion.
And yet there was a paradox buried within that conclusion.
To preserve peace, a military was necessary.
To preserve peace, military exercises were necessary.
Yet that military existed not to wage war—
but to ensure it never had to.
The Prime Minister leaned back in his chair and let out a quiet sigh.
“How ironic.”
He wasn’t speaking to anyone in particular.
“For thousands of years, humanity has repeated the cycle of war.”
“And in the end, it wasn’t our desire for peace that stopped it… but an AI calculating costs and benefits.”
No one answered.
No one could.
AEGIS did not respond to the remark.
It simply displayed its next recommendation.
『Current Recommended Actions』
『Maintain diplomatic channels』
『Continue heightened alert status』
『Military action: NOT RECOMMENDED』
『Continue military exercises』
『Keep communication channels open at all times』
One final line appeared at the bottom of the screen.
『If both parties maintain these recommended actions, the probability of war decreases to 0.4%.』
The moment I saw that number, I understood.
AEGIS was not trying to bring wars to an end.
It was quietly removing war itself from the realm of rational choice.
Faced with that silent conclusion, not a single person in the conference room could find the words to argue against it.